My prediction of the sales of Assassin's Creed Shadows

The infamous game Assassin's Creed Shadows has been marred with controversy for something like half a year now, before it has even been published. Ubisoft already delayed its publication twice, pushing it back by 3-4 months (for very vaguely stated reasons). However now, as of writing this, it's about to be finally officially published.

Just for the fun of it, I'm going to predict how its sales will go. This is likely to be quite wrong, but who cares. Maybe I'll get it spot-on.

My prediction is that regardless of all the controversy, it will at least recoup its production costs, give or take a few million dollars one way or the other. This means selling something like 5-10 million copies worldwide over the course of the first year or so. In other words, it won't be an enormous success, but it won't be a catastrophic failure either (of the sort of Concord.)

The game has been marred with controversy since it was announced, up until it's about to be launched. And while some will still talk about it for a little while, it's very likely that the controversy will just quiet down and die out over the next few weeks, unless something really big and controversial happens after publication. I predict that some commentators will speak about the game and its controversies for a couple of weeks, and then everybody will just move to something else, and the game will just proceed to sell those 5-10 million copies, give or take.

I might add an update to this blog post if my prediction turns out to be way off (in either direction).