The current coronavirus (officially SARS-CoV-2) epidemic is certainly making the news, and paralyzing the world. In Wuhan and several surrounding areas streets are empty and desolated, construction sites abandoned, office buildings empty, and there's almost nobody on the streets. In many places in the rest of the world traveling has been discouraged and even restricted, and millions of dollars are being spent in testing and quarantining people. Stock markets are plummeting, and it is expected for prices (especially electronics) to soar in the near future.
But is this a bit of an over-reaction? Should this be put into perspective?
Consider that at the moment of writing this (3rd of March 2020) there have been about 3120 deaths caused by the coronavirus. Now consider that during the past two months, ie. during this year alone, an estimated 83 thousand people have died of the seasonal flu. (This is nothing abnormal. Every year about 500-600 thousand people die of the seasonal flu.)
In other words, during the past two months the seasonal influenza has killed over 26 times more people than the coronavirus. The influenza virus is typically as virulent (ie. spreads as easily) as the coronavirus.
Yet nobody writes sensationalistic articles about this. Construction sites and office buildings are not emptied because of this, and the stock market is not plummeting because of this. People aren't hoarding surgical masks (which, by the way, do jack squat to protect oneself from contracting the coronavirus) because of it.
On the other hand, it is true that SARS-CoV-2 is more dangerous than the seasonal influenza virus. That's because it has a much higher mortality rate.
Seasonal flu typically has a mortality rate of less than 0.1%. (The reason why it kills so many people every year is that it infects an astonishingly large portion of the world population.) SARS-CoV-2, on the other hand, according to current estimates, has a mortality rate of at least 2% (and may be even more). That's way too high for comfort.
(I don't know what mortality rate is considered "too high" and "dangerous", but I would guesstimate that anything higher than about 0.1% is too high for comfort.)
If SARS-CoV-2 ends up being a pandemic of the same size as the typical seasonal flu, in other words, it infects something like 10-20% of the entire population of the world, and assuming the lowest estimated mortality rate of 2%, that would mean about 15 to 30 million deaths at a minimum (which would be significantly higher than the about half million deaths caused by the seasonal flu).
And, admittedly, SARS-CoV-2 is so virulent that it has the potential to become such a pandemic, and if it succeeds in doing so, it would be one of the biggest pandemics in human history.
Even then... I still feel that the world doesn't pay enough attention to all those deaths caused by the seasonal flu. I suppose that since it happens every year and is so common, it has become "normal".
But is this a bit of an over-reaction? Should this be put into perspective?
Consider that at the moment of writing this (3rd of March 2020) there have been about 3120 deaths caused by the coronavirus. Now consider that during the past two months, ie. during this year alone, an estimated 83 thousand people have died of the seasonal flu. (This is nothing abnormal. Every year about 500-600 thousand people die of the seasonal flu.)
In other words, during the past two months the seasonal influenza has killed over 26 times more people than the coronavirus. The influenza virus is typically as virulent (ie. spreads as easily) as the coronavirus.
Yet nobody writes sensationalistic articles about this. Construction sites and office buildings are not emptied because of this, and the stock market is not plummeting because of this. People aren't hoarding surgical masks (which, by the way, do jack squat to protect oneself from contracting the coronavirus) because of it.
On the other hand, it is true that SARS-CoV-2 is more dangerous than the seasonal influenza virus. That's because it has a much higher mortality rate.
Seasonal flu typically has a mortality rate of less than 0.1%. (The reason why it kills so many people every year is that it infects an astonishingly large portion of the world population.) SARS-CoV-2, on the other hand, according to current estimates, has a mortality rate of at least 2% (and may be even more). That's way too high for comfort.
(I don't know what mortality rate is considered "too high" and "dangerous", but I would guesstimate that anything higher than about 0.1% is too high for comfort.)
If SARS-CoV-2 ends up being a pandemic of the same size as the typical seasonal flu, in other words, it infects something like 10-20% of the entire population of the world, and assuming the lowest estimated mortality rate of 2%, that would mean about 15 to 30 million deaths at a minimum (which would be significantly higher than the about half million deaths caused by the seasonal flu).
And, admittedly, SARS-CoV-2 is so virulent that it has the potential to become such a pandemic, and if it succeeds in doing so, it would be one of the biggest pandemics in human history.
Even then... I still feel that the world doesn't pay enough attention to all those deaths caused by the seasonal flu. I suppose that since it happens every year and is so common, it has become "normal".
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