The current generation of modern VR has now been around for over a year. Yet it has very little to show for it.
Sales figures are absolutely abysmal. As I commented in a previous blog post, both PC VR headsets combined have sold in one year less units than a typical game console sells in its first week after launch.
In fact, consider for example consoles like the Sega Dreamcast, or the PlayStation Vita. The former sold over 9 million units, and the latter about 10 million units. Yet both are generally considered commercial failures. The Wii U, at about 13 million units, is also considered at least a borderline commercial failure due to that number (especially considering that the Wii sold over 100 million units).
Both PC VR headsets combined have so far sold but a small fraction of that, far less than 1 million units in total. In fact, you can throw in the PSVR sales into the sum as well, and it would still fall short by a long margin (even though the PSVR has so far sold more units than both PC headsets combined, and even though it has been on the market for less time.)
These abysmal sales figures can be seen in the library of triple-A games for the systems. As in, it's virtually (hah!) empty.
How many triple-A VR games can you mention? The list is really short.
[ As a side note, the term "triple-A game" is a bit vague and up to interpretation, but I think a reasonable distinction can be made between triple-A games, medium-sized games, small indie-games, and tech demos.
A triple-A game has a very sizeable budget, at least in the tens of millions, very high production values, and a massive amount of content. Usually, although not necessarily always, this is reflected in the length of the game in a typical first-time casual playthrough, most typically in the 20-50 hours range (sometimes more, sometimes less). Games like GTA5, Witcher 3 and Bloodborne are quintessential examples.
A medium-sized game has still notable production values, but is significantly smaller in budget and content. A typical first-time playthrough may be in the 2-20 hours range (most often the lower half of that scale). I would consider games like Portal, Journey, and Brothers: A Tale of Two Sons, as examples. Of course the line is sometimes blurred with small indie games, which typically also have similar length, although often lower production values (usually due to being developed by a very small team of people with very low budgets, sometimes even one single person). ]
The "health" of a gaming system can be measured by the amount of triple-A titles for it. Or even the "medium-sized" ones. So, how many such games are there for VR so far?
Very few. Aside from ancillary VR support in a few big-name racing and vehicle simulation games, and perhaps Resident Evil 7, I can't name anything off the top of my head. There are a few what I would call medium-sized games for the PSVR (such as Farpoint, and Robinson: The Journey), and there are likewise perhaps a few for the PC VR headsets, but that's about it.
By far the vast majority of the rest is comprised almost exclusively of tech demos and very short games (which oftentimes could even be considered tech demos themselves, rather than full-fledged games). Indie games abound, especially on the PC side, but they tend to be low-budget and short. Often all of these games concentrate on the visual effects that stereoscopic imagery allows, rather than actual deep engaging story-driven gameplay. Even those that do have a story to them, a narrative, tend to be very short (in the 2-5 hours range). Some games are just medium-sized "sandbox" games without much story.
Prior to the launch of the PC VR headsets, and the PSVR, many market analysts and video game commentators were predicting massive sales numbers, and a revolution in video gaming. Some people were even saying things that the old style games that you just play on a regular screen would become obsolete, and that the future is VR. Even the more pragmatic among them were predicting that VR gaming would become as big as regular traditional gaming, existing side by side.
It's quite clear that those predictions were completely wrong. VR did not become an overnight ginormous success. VR headsets did not sell but a small fraction of what was predicted. VR did not revolutionize video gaming as we know it. Heck, it isn't even competing with traditional video games. It's on the contrary struggling to get any attention at all from game developers, and most gamers alike. The development of traditional-style video games is as strong as ever, while VR development seems to have been relegated by most companies to a secondary side project at best; completely dismissed at worst.
VR did not revolutionize video gaming. It didn't even make a dent. It's struggling. Its sales figures are abysmal, and its library of triple-A games even more so.
So, is it finally time to consider VR a commercial failure?
(Note that I don't want VR to become a failure and come crashing down. I own a PSVR. I want games for it. I eagerly browse the PSVR section of PSN for new interesting games. I just can't deny reality: It's a struggling system which has fallen far, far below expectations. Something that I predicted over a year ago.)
Sales figures are absolutely abysmal. As I commented in a previous blog post, both PC VR headsets combined have sold in one year less units than a typical game console sells in its first week after launch.
In fact, consider for example consoles like the Sega Dreamcast, or the PlayStation Vita. The former sold over 9 million units, and the latter about 10 million units. Yet both are generally considered commercial failures. The Wii U, at about 13 million units, is also considered at least a borderline commercial failure due to that number (especially considering that the Wii sold over 100 million units).
Both PC VR headsets combined have so far sold but a small fraction of that, far less than 1 million units in total. In fact, you can throw in the PSVR sales into the sum as well, and it would still fall short by a long margin (even though the PSVR has so far sold more units than both PC headsets combined, and even though it has been on the market for less time.)
These abysmal sales figures can be seen in the library of triple-A games for the systems. As in, it's virtually (hah!) empty.
How many triple-A VR games can you mention? The list is really short.
[ As a side note, the term "triple-A game" is a bit vague and up to interpretation, but I think a reasonable distinction can be made between triple-A games, medium-sized games, small indie-games, and tech demos.
A triple-A game has a very sizeable budget, at least in the tens of millions, very high production values, and a massive amount of content. Usually, although not necessarily always, this is reflected in the length of the game in a typical first-time casual playthrough, most typically in the 20-50 hours range (sometimes more, sometimes less). Games like GTA5, Witcher 3 and Bloodborne are quintessential examples.
A medium-sized game has still notable production values, but is significantly smaller in budget and content. A typical first-time playthrough may be in the 2-20 hours range (most often the lower half of that scale). I would consider games like Portal, Journey, and Brothers: A Tale of Two Sons, as examples. Of course the line is sometimes blurred with small indie games, which typically also have similar length, although often lower production values (usually due to being developed by a very small team of people with very low budgets, sometimes even one single person). ]
The "health" of a gaming system can be measured by the amount of triple-A titles for it. Or even the "medium-sized" ones. So, how many such games are there for VR so far?
Very few. Aside from ancillary VR support in a few big-name racing and vehicle simulation games, and perhaps Resident Evil 7, I can't name anything off the top of my head. There are a few what I would call medium-sized games for the PSVR (such as Farpoint, and Robinson: The Journey), and there are likewise perhaps a few for the PC VR headsets, but that's about it.
By far the vast majority of the rest is comprised almost exclusively of tech demos and very short games (which oftentimes could even be considered tech demos themselves, rather than full-fledged games). Indie games abound, especially on the PC side, but they tend to be low-budget and short. Often all of these games concentrate on the visual effects that stereoscopic imagery allows, rather than actual deep engaging story-driven gameplay. Even those that do have a story to them, a narrative, tend to be very short (in the 2-5 hours range). Some games are just medium-sized "sandbox" games without much story.
Prior to the launch of the PC VR headsets, and the PSVR, many market analysts and video game commentators were predicting massive sales numbers, and a revolution in video gaming. Some people were even saying things that the old style games that you just play on a regular screen would become obsolete, and that the future is VR. Even the more pragmatic among them were predicting that VR gaming would become as big as regular traditional gaming, existing side by side.
It's quite clear that those predictions were completely wrong. VR did not become an overnight ginormous success. VR headsets did not sell but a small fraction of what was predicted. VR did not revolutionize video gaming as we know it. Heck, it isn't even competing with traditional video games. It's on the contrary struggling to get any attention at all from game developers, and most gamers alike. The development of traditional-style video games is as strong as ever, while VR development seems to have been relegated by most companies to a secondary side project at best; completely dismissed at worst.
VR did not revolutionize video gaming. It didn't even make a dent. It's struggling. Its sales figures are abysmal, and its library of triple-A games even more so.
So, is it finally time to consider VR a commercial failure?
(Note that I don't want VR to become a failure and come crashing down. I own a PSVR. I want games for it. I eagerly browse the PSVR section of PSN for new interesting games. I just can't deny reality: It's a struggling system which has fallen far, far below expectations. Something that I predicted over a year ago.)
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